September 18, 2025: AAII Sentiment Survey - Optimism Skyrockets

AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish sentiment jumps to 41.7%, neutral hits a 5-month low, while bearish remains elevated at 42.4%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 13.6 percentage points to 41.7%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in seven weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 6.5 percentage points to 16.0%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 61st time in 63 weeks. This is the lowest neutral sentiment reading in five months, since April 10, 2025, when it was 12.5%. Today’s neutral sentiment reading ranks among the 50th lowest in the survey’s history.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 7.1 percentage points to 42.4%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 42nd time in 44 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 20.8 percentage points to –0.7%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 31st time in 33 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members where they would put the odds of a recession occurring before the end of this year.

Here is how they responded:

• Highly likely: 4.2%

• A higher-than-typical chance: 26.9%

• Not more or less likely than I would normally expect: 26.9%

• Unlikely: 39.6%

• Not sure: 2.3%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 41.7%, up 13.6 points
Neutral: 16.0%, down 6.5 points
Bearish: 42.4%, down 7.1 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.