October 9, 2025: AAII Sentiment Survey -Optimism Persists
Bullish sentiment rose to 45.9% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, while bearish sentiment fell. Investors now favor small-cap stocks for the next six months.
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment increased and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 3.0 percentage points to 45.9%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth consecutive week. Optimism was last higher on December 5, 2024 (48.3%).
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.6 percentage points to 18.5%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 64th time in 66 weeks. This is the first time neutral sentiment has been below 20% for four consecutive weeks since 2007.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 3.5 percentage points to 35.6%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 45th time in 47 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 6.5 percentage points to 10.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in 10 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members which market-capitalization style of stocks they expect to outperform over the next six months.
Here is how they responded:
Small-cap stocks: 33.5%
Large-cap stocks: 29.2%
Mid-cap stocks: 17.3%
Not sure/no opinion: 20.0%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 45.9%, up 3.0 points
Neutral: 18.5%, up 0.6 points
Bearish: 35.6%, down 3.5 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.