October 16, 2025: AAII Sentiment Survey -Optimism Sinks
Bullish sentiment fell to 33.7% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, while bearish sentiment surged to 46.1% as more investors view stocks as overvalued.
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 12.2 percentage points to 33.7%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in five weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.8 percentage points to 20.3%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 65th time in 67 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 10.4 percentage points to 46.1%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 46th time in 48 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 22.6 percentage points to –12.4%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 34th time in 37 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the current valuation of stocks.
Here is how they responded:
Stocks, in general, are overvalued: 54.6%
Stocks, in general, are fairly valued: 10.0%
Valuations are mixed, with some stocks expensive and others cheap: 27.5%
Stocks, in general, are undervalued: 6.1%
Not sure/no opinion: 1.1%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 33.7%, down 12.2 points
Neutral: 20.3%, up 1.8 points
Bearish: 46.1%, up 10.4 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.