December 18, 2025: AAII Sentiment Survey - Pessimism Ticks Up
AAII Sentiment Survey shows rising bearishness among individual investors as bullish and neutral sentiment fall, plus how passive investing is shaping strategies.
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.4 percentage points to 44.1%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the third time in six weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.2 percentage points to 22.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 74th time in 76 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 2.6 percentage points to 33.2%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 45th time in 47 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 3.1 percentage points to 10.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the seventh time in 46 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how the rise of passive investing (index funds/ETFs) affected their investing strategy.
Here is how they responded:
I use a mix of investments and haven’t changed my approach: 34.7%
I’ve moved more money into passive investments: 29.2%
It hasn’t affected my strategy at all: 26.9%
I’ve moved more money into active investments to differentiate: 5.6%
Not sure/no opinion: 2.8%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 44.1%, down 0.4 points
Neutral: 22.7%, down 2.2 points
Bearish: 33.2%, up 2.6 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.