AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Surges
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.9 percentage points to 30.4%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 4.8 percentage points to 22.0%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 99th time in 101 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 10.7 percentage points to 47.7%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 18th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 16.6 percentage points to –17.3%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low for the first time since March and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 17th time in 18 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members if there is a bubble in stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI).
Here is how they responded:
Yes, there is a bubble in AI-related stocks: 36.3%
Some, but not all, AI-related stocks are too expensively valued: 51.5%
No, there isn’t a bubble in AI-related stocks: 7.4%
Not sure/no opinion: 4.9%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 30.4%, down 5.9 points
Neutral: 22.0%, down 4.8 points
Bearish: 47.7%, up 10.7 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
