AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Steps Down

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 0.7 percentage points to 36.3%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the third consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 4.1 percentage points to 26.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 98th time in 100 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.9 percentage points to 37.0%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 17th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 5.6 percentage points to –0.7%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 16th time in 17 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which factor is most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• The economy and/or inflation: 34.8%

• Geopolitics: 33.6%

• Valuations: 16.4%

• Monetary policy/interest rates: 9.6%

• Other: 5.6%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 36.3%, up 0.7 points
Neutral: 26.7%, up 4.1 points
Bearish: 37.0%, down 4.9 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.