Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 9.2 percentage points to 28.8%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh time in nine weeks. Bullish sentiment was last lower on September 11, 2025 (28.0%).
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 4.8 percentage points to 17.9%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 28th consecutive week.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 14.0 percentage points to 53.3%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.5% for the 32nd consecutive week. Bearish sentiment was last higher on May 1, 2025 (59.3%).
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 23.1 percentage points to –24.5%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the ninth consecutive week.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how the current amount of cash in their portfolio compares with their normal allocation.
Here is how they responded:
It is much higher than normal: 19.1%
It is somewhat higher than normal: 31.3%
It is about normal: 36.6%
It is lower than normal: 10.7%
Not sure: 2.3%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 28.8%, down 9.2 points
Neutral: 17.9%, down 4.8 points
Bearish: 53.3%, up 14.0 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 31.5%