AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rebounds
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 1.1 percentage points to 38.5%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 11th consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 8.0 percentage points to 23.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 82nd time in 84 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 9.1 percentage points to 38.1%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the fourth time in 11 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 10.3 percentage points to 0.4%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in 11 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how many quarter-point (0.25%) interest rate cuts they think the Federal Reserve will make this year.
Here is how they responded:
None: 6.3%
One: 27.6%
Two or three: 53.4%
Four or more: 4.1%
Not sure/no opinion: 8.6%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 38.5%, down 1.1 points
Neutral: 23.3%, down 8.0 points
Bearish: 38.1%, up 9.1 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.