Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 2.5 percentage points to 32.9%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the sixth consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.0 percentage points to 22.6%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 25th consecutive week.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 4.5 percentage points to 44.4%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.5% for the 29th consecutive week. Bearish sentiment was last higher on June 11, 2026.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 7.1 percentage points to –11.5%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the sixth consecutive week.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the earnings guidance given by companies during second-quarter 2026 earnings season.
Here is how they responded:
Better than I expected: 49.0%
Approximately what I expected: 27.6%
Worse than I expected: 6.2%
Not sure/no opinion: 17.2%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 32.9%, down 2.5 points
Neutral: 22.6%, down 2.0 points
Bearish: 44.4%, up 4.5 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 31.5%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
