AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Hesitates

Investor pessimism fell as bearish sentiment dropped to 44.8%, while bullish rose to 30.8% and neutral to 24.4%. See the latest market outlook.

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.0 percentage points to 30.8%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth time in eight weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.4 percentage points to 24.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 57th time in 59 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.3 percentage points to 44.8%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 38th time in 40 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 2.3 percentage points to –14.0%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 27th time in 29 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the updated earnings guidance given by companies during the second-quarter 2025 earnings season.

Here is how they responded:

• Better than I expected: 34.8%

• Approximately what I expected: 40.3%

• Worse than I expected: 4.4%

• Not sure/no opinion: 20.6%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 30.8%, up 1.0 points
Neutral: 24.4%, up 0.4 points
Bearish: 44.8%, down 1.3 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.