AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Drops
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 4.9 percentage points to 36.3%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh time in eight weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.1 percentage points to 26.5%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 103rd time in 105 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 5.1 percentage points to 37.2%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 22nd consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 10.0 percentage points to –0.9%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 20th time in 22 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how the stock market’s year-to-date return compares to their expectations at the start of 2026.
Here is how they responded:
It is better than I expected: 70.1%
It is about as I expected: 22.8%
It is worse than I expected: 4.9%
Not sure/other: 1.6%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 36.3%, up 4.9 points
Neutral: 26.5%, up 0.1 points
Bearish: 37.2%, down 5.1 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%