AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Draws Back
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 6.2 percentage points to 36.6%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 2.1 percentage points to 24.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 100th time in 102 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 8.3 percentage points to 39.4%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 19th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 14.5 percentage points to –2.8%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 18th time in 19 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members which market-capitalization style of stocks they expect to outperform over the next six months.
Here is how they responded:
Small-cap stocks: 27.1%
Large-cap stocks: 25.4%
Mid-cap stocks: 19.9%
Not sure/no opinion: 26.5%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 36.6%, up 6.2 points
Neutral: 24.1%, up 2.1 points
Bearish: 39.4%, down 8.3 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.