AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Spikes
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 8.6 percentage points to 44.9%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in nine weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 4.3 percentage points to 22.2%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 104th time in 106 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.3 percentage points to 32.9%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 23rd consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 22.9 percentage points to 12.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the second time in four weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how, if at all, they’ve changed their approach to investing recently.
Here is how they responded:
I’ve become much more conservative/cautious: 13.6%
I’ve become slightly more conservative: 22.0%
I’ve switched around some investments, but only made modest changes overall: 30.5%
I’ve become more aggressive: 5.1%
No changes: 27.7%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 44.9%, up 8.6 percentage points
Neutral: 22.2%, down 4.3 percentage points
Bearish: 32.9%, down 4.3 percentage points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 44.9%, up 8.6 points
Neutral: 22.2%, down 4.3 points
Bearish: 32.9%, down 4.3 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%