AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Roars
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 14.3 percentage points to 46.0%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in 10 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 5.9 percentage points to 19.5%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 92nd time in 94 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 8.4 percentage points to 34.4%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 11th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 22.7 percentage points to 11.6%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in 11 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members if they think other investors are too bullish or too bearish right now.
Here is how they responded:
They are too bullish: 45.6%
Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 17.2%
They are too bearish: 27.8%
Not sure/no opinion: 9.5%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 46.0%, up 14.3 points
Neutral: 19.5%, down 5.9 points
Bearish: 34.4%, down 8.4 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.