AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Retracts
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 6.3 percentage points to 43.2%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the eighth time in 11 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.8 percentage points to 24.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 79th time in 81 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.5 percentage points to 32.7%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 47th time in 52 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 10.8 percentage points to 10.4%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 12th time in 51 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members what their performance forecast for the S&P 500 index is in 2026.
Here is how they responded:
Up 10% or more: 25.6%
Up between 2% and 9%: 43.5%
Flat between +1% and –1%: 12.1%
Down between 2% and 9%: 10.3%
Down 10% or more: 7.2%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 43.2%, down 6.3 points
Neutral: 24.1%, up 1.8 points
Bearish: 32.7%, up 4.5 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.