AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Recoils
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 7.9 percentage points to 38.1%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in 11 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 2.6 percentage points to 22.2%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 93rd time in 95 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 5.3 percentage points to 39.7%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 12th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 13.2 percentage points to –1.6%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 11th time in 12 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the current valuation of stocks.
Here is how they responded:
Stocks, in general, are overvalued: 44.1%
Stocks, in general, are fairly valued: 16.2%
Valuations are mixed, with some stocks expensive and others cheap: 34.9%
Stocks, in general, are undervalued: 1.8%
Not sure/no opinion: 3.1%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 38.1%, down 7.9 points
Neutral: 22.2%, up 2.6 points
Bearish: 39.7%, up 5.3 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
