AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Reappears

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 3.8 percentage points to 35.6%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in six weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.1 percentage points to 22.6%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 97th time in 99 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.8 percentage points to 41.9%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 16th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 5.6 percentage points to –6.3%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 15th time in 16 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they think the average consumer is faring relative to the start of the year.

Here is how they responded:

• Better 8.3%

• About the same: 18.2%

• Worse: 71.9%

• Not sure/no opinion: 0.8%