AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Plunges
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 15.3 percentage points to 29.6%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the third time in four weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 5.8 percentage points to 28.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 105th time in 107 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 9.5 percentage points to 42.3%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 24th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 24.8 percentage points to –12.8%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the third time in four weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how they think inflation in the second half of 2026 will compare to inflation in the first half of the year.
Here is how they responded:
The rate of inflation will be similar to that of the first half of the year: 41.1%
The rate of inflation will be higher: 31.4%
The rate of inflation will slow: 23.2%
Not sure/no opinion: 3.8%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 29.6%, down 15.3 points
Neutral: 28.1%, up 5.8 points
Bearish: 42.3%, up 9.5 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%