AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Plummets
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 13.6 percentage points to 31.4%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the sixth time in seven weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 7.4 percentage points to 26.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 102nd time in 104 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 6.1 percentage points to 42.3%. Pessimism is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 21st consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 19.7 percentage points to 10.9%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 19th time in 21 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members if their portfolios are “all American,” or if they also diversify internationally [via stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and/or mutual funds]?
Here is how they responded:
Most of my portfolio is domestic, with just a small allocation to foreign companies: 54.5%
I hold a mix of domestic and foreign investments: 29.8%
I solely invest in domestic companies: 12.4%
Prefer not to answer: 1.7%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 31.4%, down 13.6 points
Neutral: 26.4%, up 7.4 points
Bearish: 42.3%, up 6.1 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%