AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Disappears

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 7.6 percentage points to 31.7%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in five weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.6 percentage points to 24.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 96th time in 98 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 7.0 percentage points to 43.6%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 15th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 14.6 percentage points to –11.9%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 14th time in 15 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the earnings guidance given by companies during first-quarter 2026 earnings season.

Here is how they responded:

• Better than I expected: 51.9%

• Approximately what I expected: 27.6%

• Worse than I expected: 2.8%

• Not sure/no opinion: 17.7%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 31.7%, down 7.6 points
Neutral: 24.7%, up 0.6 points
Bearish: 43.6%, up 7.0 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.