AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Bounces Back
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.4 percentage points to 31.0%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth time in five weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.2 percentage points to 26.9%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 106th time in 108 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.2 percentage points to 42.1%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 25th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 1.6 percentage points to –11.1%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the fourth time in five weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members what their opinion is of new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh.
Here is how they responded:
I want to give him more time before voicing an opinion: 58.5%
He is a good pick to head the Fed: 22.6%
I would have preferred that someone else be the Fed chair: 13.3%
Not sure/no opinion: 5.6%