AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Rises

Neutral sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 4.0 percentage points to 31.7%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the ninth consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 4.2 percentage points to 25.5%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 91st time in 93 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.2 percentage points to 42.8%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 10th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 3.8 percentage points to –11.1%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 10th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if their inflation expectations have changed since the end of February.

Here is how they responded:

• Yes, I expect inflation to be much higher: 19.3%

• Yes, I expect inflation to be moderately higher: 46.0%

• Yes, I expect inflation to be temporarily higher: 24.1%

• No, my inflation expectations are unchanged: 9.6%

• Not sure/no opinion: 0.5%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 31.7%, down 4.0 points
Neutral: 25.5%, up 4.2 points
Bearish: 42.8%, down 0.2 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.