AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Leads

Neutral sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.1 percentage points to 33.1%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the third time in 14 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 4.4 percentage points to 31.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 85th time in 87 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.2 percentage points to 35.5%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the fourth consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 4.1 percentage points to –2.5%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the fourth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what their perception of inflation is.

Here is how they responded:

• It’s slowing, but not by enough: 38.6%

• It’s returning to a more acceptable pace: 33.2%

• It’s still rising too quickly: 22.4%

• Not sure/no opinion: 5.4%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 33.1%, down 0.1 points
Neutral: 31.4%, up 4.4 points
Bearish: 35.5%, down 4.2 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%

See more Sentiment Survey results.