AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Drops
Neutral sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and pessimism increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.5 percentage points to 33.6%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 3.1 percentage points to 15.0%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 89th time in 91 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 1.6 percentage points to 51.4%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the eighth consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 0.2 percentage points to –17.9%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the eighth consecutive week.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how oil prices are affecting their perception of the economy.
Here is how they responded:
They will have a significant negative impact: 34.3%
It depends on how long oil prices remain at current levels: 24.2%
They will slow economic growth somewhat: 23.7%
I do not expect them to have a lasting impact: 16.5%
Not sure/no opinion: 0.9%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 33.6%, up 1.5 points
Neutral: 15.0%, down 3.1 points
Bearish: 51.4%, up 1.6 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
