AAII Sentiment Survey May 8, 2025: Optimism Leaps
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 8.5 percentage points to 29.4%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the 17th time in 19 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 0.7 percentage points to 19.0%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 42nd time in 44 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 7.8 percentage points to 51.5%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 23rd time in 25 weeks. Bearish sentiment has now been above 50% for 11 consecutive weeks, the longest period over 50% in the survey’s history.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 16.3 percentage points to –22.1%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 18th time in 20 weeks and is below –20.0% for the 11th consecutive week. This is the longest streak below –20.0% since a 12-week stretch between September 14 and November 30, 1990.
This week’s special question asked AAII members what source most influences their stock market sentiment.
Here is how they responded:
My own analysis and judgment: 58.3%
The performance of my own portfolio: 13.1%
Financial news media: 11.7%
Investing newsletters or research services: 11.0%
Other: 5.7%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 29.4%, up 8.5 points
Neutral: 19.0%, down 0.7 points
Bearish: 51.5%, down 7.8 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%