AAII Sentiment Survey May 22: Pessimism Dips
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.8 percentage points to 37.7%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in 16 weeks and is above 30% for only the seventh time this year. Bullish sentiment was last higher on January 30, 2025 (41.0%).
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 5.9 percentage points to 25.6%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 44th time in 46 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 7.7 percentage points to 36.7%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 25th time in 27 weeks. Bearish sentiment was last lower on January 30, 2025 (34.0%).
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 9.5 percentage points to 1.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in 16 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how they would describe the updated earnings guidance given by companies during the first-quarter 2025 earnings season.
Here is how they responded:
Better than I expected: 28.2%
Approximately what I expected: 41.7%
Worse than I expected: 11.5%
Not sure/no opinion: 18.3%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 37.7%, up 1.8 points
Neutral: 25.6%, up 5.9 points
Bearish: 36.7%, down 7.7 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%