AAII Sentiment Survey June 26: Optimism Creeps Up

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.9 percentage points to 35.1%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 37.5% for the 20th time in 21 weeks and is above 30% for only the 12th time this year.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 0.7 percentage points to 24.7%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 49th time in 51 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.1 percentage points to 40.3%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 30th time in 32 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 3.0 percentage points to –5.2%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 21st time in 23 weeks

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This week’s special question asked AAII members what they think about the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

Here is how they responded:

• It was the right move: 70.7%

• They should have cut rates: 19.9%

• They should have raised rates: 3.1%

• Not sure/no opinion: 4.7%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 35.1%, up 1.9 points
Neutral: 24.7%, down 0.7 points
Bearish: 40.3%, down 1.1 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%