AAII Sentiment Survey July 3: Optimism Makes a Breakthrough
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 9.9 percentage points to 45.0%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in six weeks and was last higher on December 5, 2024 (48.3%).
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.8 percentage points to 21.9%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 50th time in 52 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 7.2 percentage points to 33.1%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 31st time in 33 weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 17.1 percentage points to 11.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in 22 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members their opinion on the new tax legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, being debated in Congress.
Here is how they responded:
It raises the national deficit too much: 64.4%
I generally like it: 18.2%
It cuts government spending too much: 7.2%
It doesn’t cut taxes enough: 3.8%
Not sure/no opinion: 6.2%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 45.0%, up 9.9 points
Neutral: 21.9%, down 2.8 points
Bearish: 33.1%, down 7.2 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%