AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Jumps
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 7.0 percentage points to 49.5%. Bullish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh time in 10 weeks. Optimism was last higher on November 14, 2024 (49.8%).
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 5.2 percentage points to 22.3%. Neutral sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 78th time in 80 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.8 percentage points to 28.2%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fifth time in seven weeks.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 8.8 percentage points to 21.3%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 11th time in 50 weeks.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how their portfolio performed in 2025 relative to their expectations.
Here is how they responded:
Much better than I expected: 21.3%
Better than I expected: 46.6%
Close to how I expected: 20.2%
Worse than I expected: 9.1%
Much worse than I expected: 2.0%
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Bullish: 49.5%, up 7.0 points
Neutral: 22.3%, down 5.2 points
Bearish: 28.2%, down 1.8 points
Historical averages:
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.